Editor’s note: Entries now closed.
THERE’S major bragging rights – and great prizes – at stake for the winner of Beef Central’s Eastern Young Cattle Indicator guessing competition, asking readers to predict where the indicator will sit at the end of 2024.
Participation in the competition (see details below) closes at 5pm this afternoon, Monday, March 4.
Already hundreds of readers have submitted a number, either via the reader comment facility at the base of this page, or via email. Participants are asked to predict the EYCI’s level at the close of business on Monday, 2 December, 2024.
Young cattle prices have shown remarkable volatility over the past two years, and 2024 is shaping up to be no different. There are plenty of influences in play again this year that could impact young cattle values.
For those in the ‘glass half full’ camp, there’s the impact of better than expected seasonal conditions heading into autumn, and the potential void left in export markets as US beef production starts to slow. For those ‘glass half empty’ thinkers, there’s the impacts like slower global beef demand as consumers face cost of living headwinds, a greatly expanded national cattle herd and growing export competition out of Brazil.
There’s some great prizes up for grabs for the winners, including:
- An oilskin riding coat (full length or three-quarter, winner’s choice) from high quality Australian apparel manufacturer Claybourn, western outfitters since 1910 (retail value $659). Claybourn produces a wide range of country style jackets, vests, coats, shirts, chinos and pants, caps, accessories and other gear. Click here to learn more about the colourful history of the Claybourn brand, items from which will appear on Beef Central’s trade display at Beef 2024 in May.
- a bottle of Penfolds 389 Shiraz (the poor man’s Grange) for the runner-up.
To join the competition, simply register your prediction using the reader comment facility at the base of this page. We ask that entries include a number with at least one decimal point, to help separate similar entries (NLRS reports the EYCI indicator to two decimal places – ie yesterday’s closing figure was 619.61). Full names required for entries, please.
We’re asking for your prediction of EYCI’s value at the close of business on Monday, 2 December, 2024. Feel free to add a sentence or two if you want, giving your reasoning.
Entries close this afternoon – Monday, 4 March, at 5pm. Winners will be announced on Tuesday 3 December.
To kick things off, we asked a few industry identities to have a stab at where they think the EYCI will end the year:
- Beef Central’s Weekly Grill podcast host, Kerry Lonergan: 921.5c/kg
- Simon Stahl, NCMC Casino: 401.1c/kg
- Ep3 analyst Matt Dalgleish: 705.1c/kg.
Editor’s note: Entries in this competition are now closed.
Stuart’s final entry below was received on 4 March, but was not moderated, and activated, until 5 March.
492
The old rule a 5% change in either supply or demand can result in a 50% change in price. We got a taste of things last year when it got dry and supply exceeded demand. We also saw how the value of meat and the EYCI separated in this time. Would love a wet 2024 spring and to be completely wrong!
EYCI 788.87
EYCI- 592.90
EYCI- 699.91
488.91
800.20
1080c
687.56
870.0c/kg
675
821.50c/kg
727.01
715.85
699.15c/kg
1000.2
EYCI to be at 725c/kg.
667.75
After exceeding $7 mid year it will dip running into Christmas with plenty of kill cattle coming out of the flooded channels. Us reduces herd Will support global prices for GF product
801.9
EYCI @ 799.1c/kg
847
7.51
679.11c/kg
717.17c/kg
763.4c/kg…
US herd rebuild driving opportunities balanced against processing capacity limitations relative to supply in Aus
$6.78/kg
841.15
739.12
$5.55/kg
487c.3c/kg
EYCI 777.77
My guess for the level of the EYCI at the end of 2024 is 355.5.
720.4
535.68
660.2
634.15c/kg
730.2c/kg
356.66
542.9
405c/kg
Cost of living
692c/kg
859.5c/kg
843.7
EYCI 817.50
EYCI- 823.8 c/kg
876
475.22
682.3 c/kg
783.37
Great grass everywhere, US herd restocking, abattoir capacity increasing
EYCI- 720.1 c/kg
673.4
687.51. By the end of the year the US will have gone through a spring and summer, and we will see where the next BOM forecast for our spring has landed.
My guess for the EYCI 02/12 is 930.25 c.
I am an optimist and expect beef cattle markets will see an appreciable rise late in the year due to a reduction in U.S. supply, together with Australian producers limiting supply.
692
781
742
806.7 EYCI 2/12/24
823.45
EYCI PREDICTION
556.25c/kg
I think the eyci will be 754.38 due to shortages of beef in USA
842.38
848.5c/kg
801.15 c/kg
400c
657.1
I think we will close the year out at EYCI $7.84.
Thanks
Tony White
Gateway livestock and Mirambee feedlot Dubbo
EYCI prediction 712.5c/kg
880.9
600c
EYCI 722.1
727.27c/kg
930c/kg
A touch above Kerry L just in case we see a blow out!
EYCI for this time next year – 787 c/kg
716.21
654.83
805c/kg
705.20
585.67
EYCI –672.11
EYCI Prediction 787.3 c/kg
721 c/kg
I’m predicting at years end the eyci will be 745.00
Cheers
787.5
695.2 c/kg
867.3c/kg
Good idea.
550.50
589.6
675.9c/kg
805.3 – will donate prize to RFDS in very unlikely event that I win. Going a bit higher due to US Cattle herd.
Nice solution here for those working for industry organisations, who want to participate without risking conflict of interest – Stephen works with AusMeat. Editor
731.6
799.51c/kg
EYCI 681c/kg
783.2
705.21 c/kg
EYCI 684.3
562.44
863.55c/kg
7.23
EYCI 783.14
My prediction is 713.1c/kg
EYCI 724.31
EYCI 801.89c/kg dependent on Spring rain, weather hype and processor manipulation
579.5c/kg
EYCI 700.78 c per kg
5% increase has a nice feel to it
685.50
790.01
My guess is the EYCI @December 2nd 2024 will be 685.50
688.51
888.88c/kg – But I hope I’m way under
EYCI 684.31 c/kg
EYCI 950.1 c/kg
885.26c/kg, many positive indicators as we progress into 2024,feed ,trade, only question is Aust herd size??re supply
ECYI 616.13 c/kg
731.8
802.45 c/kg
911.24 I think processing/ trade numbers will be down.
737.1c
615.2
690.6
913.87 – go you good thing!!!
525.5
EYCI 787.6c
825.7c/kg cwt
EYCI Price @ 2 Dec 2024 – 731.2
Prices always seem to dip a bit going into the Christmas break…
797.41
780.0 – Fundamentals look good for a confident year ahead
EYCI 781.41
747.87
675.3
Factors include -ample supply of young cattle this year, beginning of US supply decline (later in year) and assuming average to slightly above average season.
625.5
Somewhere between the BOM getting it wrong again with a dry end of the year, and USA having no cattle to process
Eyci 2/12/24 1000.1.
if it rains in central Queensland the cattle market goes crazy. Welcome to crazy!
EYCI 735.63
EYCI 680.71
811.4
723.6/ckg
631.4c
There will be a lot more young cattle around by the end of the year than what people think – fourth good year in a row
EYCI 767.52
756.38 – Producers are feeling confident in the market and the season, and are likely to take the next prediction of a dry spell with a grain of salt.
Missed the bit about full name the first time round
EYCI – 762.48