THE live export trade plays a pivotal role in the Queensland cattle sector, providing an outlet for northern and central Queensland cattle when processing issues emerge through central and southern parts of the state.

The past few weeks have been no exception with boat orders helping to keep cattle moving and keeping them from moving south, adding pressure to the backlog of cattle caused by the closure of meatworks due to Cyclone Alfred.

Live cattle exports for the first two months of 2025 are at their highest levels in four years and have played their part in helping to stabilise Queensland prices given the dry, hot summer.

Recently a heavy cattle export order was filled out of Cloncurry and another order in the market at 320c/kg lw for feeders and 300c/kg for medium steers, which puts them just below the rates for local cattle ex Darwin (350c/kg for feeders and 330c/kg medium steers). A feeder shipment out of Townsville filled in two days recently.

Exporters out of Darwin are unlikely to get full access to the NT supply base until mid/late April, however there are a significant number of shipments planned ex Darwin in April.

With the big rain across much of the north this week (see today’s weekly kill report and weekly rainfall summary) things have ground to a standstill and these cattle might now struggle to get out until May.

Charters Towers sales have resumed but not a lot of quality cattle are coming forward. There is some southern meatworks inquiry about for future supply suggesting they are concerned about supplies once it turns cold.

Southern Qld feedlots still a bit clogged

Speaking of which, our southern QLD agents said that bullocks were a bit firmer this week while southern processors were active buying cows at Dalby and Roma which is very early in the season. This should help in clearing the backlog of supply and level out supply and demand with southern QLD works still saying they are booked out till May. The works bids are around 570c/kg dw for a cow and 630c/kg for bullock which are well below southern quotes.

It is still hard to get a feeder quote into southern QLD feedlots with the prices slipping under southern values at 360-370c/kg lw. The only positive is that the cattle won’t be coming up from NSW to fill up QLD feedlots like they have been doing the past six months.

The run of short processing weeks in the leadup to Easter won’t help, but on the plus side the processors are making good margins if they can pay-up and drag cattle south. Several family-owned southern processors have been working public holidays suggesting solid processing margins. The rain has arrived in just a nick of time as QLD works were starting to use the uncertainty around tariffs to soften quotes. And while some US importers have slowed buying through May/Jun others are still buying worried about running out of product over the peak consumption time in the US.

NSW boosted by rain and prospect of more to come

Good rain last week in a broad trough from Moree to Dubbo is a bit of a game changer for northern and central areas of NSW which were starting to tail off season wise. This was the best rain for around 3-4 months and saw numbers come back at the yards. Feeder cattle prices have held up well across NSW given its hard to get a quote out of southern QLD works. Black cattle $4.10-4.20/kg lw, black baldy’s $4-$4.10/kg lw and Herefords and flatbacks $3.90/kg lw.

As has been noted, Wagyu feeder premiums have been under pressure for most of this year as consumers move towards lower cost beef items. Several large commercial yards are saying they are winding back Wagyu numbers and replacing them with Angus or flatback feeders on shortfed programs as pens become available.

However, the death of Wagyu feeders may have been greatly exaggerated. I saw a sale this week at $7/kg lw for Wagyu steers and $6.25/kg lw for heifers during the week that must have been outstanding pedigree with past performance history.

Some processors are still keen on locking in good grassfed program cattle in NSW at $7.30-$7.50/kg lw, anticipating that supplies will tighten in winter and with any sort of seasonal break. The supermarkets have held their prices steady so they are not worried about supply yet, although the weather sweeping across the state towards the weekend could change their tune.

Southern prices holding on, light well-bred heifers won’t be this cheap for too long

In the south, prices are very similar to NSW.  Good trade cows are running into the works at $6-6.40/kg dw and $5.50-$5.80/kg dw for a chopper cow. Angus and British breed feeders around $4-$4.20/kg and certified grassfed program cattle $7.20-$7.40/kg dw. Little young well-bred steers 250-300kgs are still good buying at $4/kg lw plus and the equivalent quality heifers 230-300kg still look exceptional buying at $2.70-3/kg lw. This pretty much covers southern markets from Victoria through to the south-east of SA.

Rain lifts prices in southern WA, gaps appear in kill schedules

After the good rain across southern WA last week prices were firmer at the sales particularly on any good yearling steers and heifers which sold to a top of $3.50-3.70/kg lw up 20-25c/kg on the previous week’s sales. Cows were also a little firmer in the yards up from $2.40 to 2.60c/kg lw but direct to works prices were unchanged. The lift in saleyard prices was a result of works buying to plug gaps that are opening in slaughter schedules that weren’t there a fortnight ago before the rain.

Lighter feeders are still struggling with anything under 300kg selling for $3-3.60/kg lw for steers and $2.20-2.40/kg lw for heifers, but demand was better for heavy feeders at $3.40-3.70/kg lw for steers and $2.40-2.90/kg lw for the heifers.

Broome season looks good

Boats will start moving out of Broome late April/May. Given the season, there should be a good cross section of cattle with heavy bulls and cows for slaughter for the southern market along with the normal feeders to Indo. Pilbara and Gascoyne cattle will be about a month behind and given the good season there should be plenty of marketing options for these cattle with the southern processors having to compete to attract them away from the boat trade.

Tassie battling a summer like season

Tassie continues to battle a very summer like weather pattern with little relief on the horizon or in the forecast. Both major works have plenty of cattle in front of them. Prices continue to hold program yearlings $6.90/kg dw and cows $5.80/kg dw with the physical market struggling to get anywhere near those quotes.

We head into our second weaner sale Thursday with a yarding of 2,200 calves which is going to test market, the previous sales saw between 20-30% of calves head over the ditch which will have to happen again to maintain prices.

Richard Koch is chief analyst with Elders.