MORE Australian beef producers plan to maintain their size or expand their cattle herds, results from an important new producer survey conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia show.

The April Beef Producer Intentions Survey follows a similar MLA survey conducted in November, tracking an improvement in sentiment over the past five months. Fifty percent of producers surveyed in April had a positive sentiment about the outlook for the industry over the next 12 months, up from 38pc back in November, when concerns over BOM summer seasonal weather forecasts were in play.

Negative sentiment about industry outlook declined to 16pc in April, down from 27pc five months earlier. A further 31pc were neither positive nor negative in their outlook sentiment in April (see graph).

There were differences between Northern (+45pc) and Southern producers (+33pc) and across states. Results suggested that Queensland, NSW and Victorian producers are more positive in their outlook than producers in other states, while producers in WA continue to report a far less positive outlook (-25). They survey was conducted in part after the Federal Government announcement about future live sheep export closures.

The confidence about the future was consistent regardless of respondents’ herd size.

Among producers who had a positive outlook, about one in three said their outlook had improved over the last six months. Producers outlook for the next 12 months will be one of the factors in their planning and forecasting for this same period.

The survey (see background below) suggests some industry participants have questioned the initial summer forecasts of El Niño and the impact of this information on some producers for the upcoming seasons.

“There remains significant pressures on producers including increasing input costs, challenges around workforce shortages as well as supply chain and market pressures, both domestic and global,” the report said). Cattle prices had continued to fluctuate, creating further pressure on some producers attempting to navigate a somewhat volatile market.

Herd size intentions:

The results of the April survey suggest (considering each producer equal, regardless of herd size), there is a small net increase in their intentions to lift on-farm grassfed adult beef cattle herd in the next 12 months.

The results showed 28pc of respondents planned to  increase their herd size; 54pc indicated their herds would remain unchanged; and 19pc indicated they would decrease their herd size.

This represents a clear change from November survey sentiment where there was a stronger intention to reduce herd sizes. Back in November, 48pc of producers were planning to reduce the size of their herds.

“While the results do not indicate producers have all shifted to a rebuild focus, there has been a noticeable shift away from herd reductions,” the survey report said.

Producer intentions over herd size were relatively consistent across both Northern and Southern regions, however producers in NSW and QLD were more likely to report an intention to increase their herd size than producers from other states. Producers in WA and SA were less likely to report an intention to increase their herd size.

A more positive perception of industry outlook is typically correlated with an intention to grow herd size, they survey said.

About the survey

MLA’s April survey took responses from 3223 invited producers from across Australia. The survey was instituted to support the industry with reliable data because of the reduction in the scope of agricultural surveys being conducted by the ABS.

Producers were initially invited to complete an online survey with the final sample complemented with a smaller number of phone interviews. The feedback was then weighted, using the latest available data from the MLA Levy Payer Register, to produce industry estimates.

The report covers several core measurement areas:

• Producer sentiment
• Herd profiles
• Breeding programs
• Producer intentions
• Sales for year to date and forecast

Three separate but integrated surveys will be conducted across the calendar year. Each survey will have a specific focus and purpose, as described below:

• November: Full survey providing an estimate of herd sizes, a profile of the grassfed beef cattle herd and measures of producer intentions.
• April : Full survey providing feedback on producers plans for the upcoming breeding program and other related issues.
• July: Pulse survey providing a quick update on results from the November and April surveys.

The survey, undertaken by MLA, is used to help industry determine grassfed beef cattle production forecasts and to understand the breed composition of the Australian herd on a national, state and regional basis. It is one of the inputs into MLA’s beef industry forecasting models.

A set of questions for ‘southern producers’ and for ‘northern producers’ were developed. While there is significant crossover in the questions between the two surveys, there are specific nuances which accommodated the clear differences that exist.

 

• More details from the April Beef Producer Sentiment survey tomorrow.

The full survey can be accessed here.