THE value of Australian agriculture in 2025-26 is expected to be the third highest on record at $91 billion, the opening stages of this year’s Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics conference in Canberra heard this morning.

Among the forecasts for the beef sector, ABARES predicts cattle saleyard prices (average of heavy steer and processor cow) will rise 9pc in 2025-26, reaching 674c/kg.

Click on image for a larger view

Including fisheries and forestry, ABARES expects the ag sector to reach $98 billion, according to executive director Dr Jared Greenville.

“While this is slightly down on an exceptional 2024-25, particularly strong results are forecast for livestock and livestock products – expected to reach a new record value of $40 billion,” Dr Greenville said.

“Demand for red meat is reflected in both strong export volumes and rising export prices, which has led to the total value of meat exports expected to hit $22 billion this financial year.

“Agricultural exports are also looking healthy next year, with the value forecast to remain relatively steady at $72 billion – or $77 billion if we include fisheries and forestry.

On the cropping front this year, national winter crop production is estimated to have increased to 59.8 million tonnes in 2024–25, 27pc above the ten-year average and the third largest on record.

Summer crop production is predicted to fall slightly in 2024–25 but will remain 28pc above the ten-year average at 4.7mt.

“Conditions for winter crops were favourable across most of New South Wales and Queensland with timely rainfall in Western Australia. However, both Victoria and South Australia faced poor seasonal conditions resulting in lower crop yields,” Mr Granville said.

Based on the back of these livestock and cropping trends, average farm financial performance is estimated to increase for broadacre farms, ABARES suggested.

“On average, national broadacre farm cash income is forecast to rise by $89,000 in 2024–25 from $124,000 to $213,000, mostly driven by higher livestock prices and greater crop production.

“Next financial year average farm incomes are expected to increase further, to $262,000 per farm as input costs ease and higher prices support both crop and livestock receipts.

“That said, dry conditions in parts of South Australia and Victoria led to below-average farm financial performance in 2024–25 in those regions, but they are turning a corner. Improving climate conditions in these states are expected to lift production and profitability next financial year.”

Beef outlook

Within the beef sector, ABARES predicts cattle saleyard prices (average of heavy steer and processor cow) to rise 9pc in 2025-26, reaching 674c/kg.

Nominal beef, veal and live cattle production values are forecast to rise to $18.3 billion in 2024–25, up by 34pc from an estimated $13.7 billion in 2023–24.

Rising production values reflect both higher cattle saleyard prices and production volumes. In 2025–26, the nominal value of beef, veal and live cattle is forecast to rise to $18.4 billion (up by 1pc), as higher cattle saleyard prices are expected to more than offset a small fall in beef production.

Over the outlook period to 2029–30, real beef, veal and live cattle production values are projected to rise initially and then fall (ranging between $16.2–18.4b), ending at $16.4b in 2029–30. The lower production values reflect falling beef production, due to herd rebuilding, outweighing higher saleyard prices.

In an alternative scenario, the real value of beef, veal and live cattle is also expected to fall over the outlook period, ending slightly higher than in the baseline scenario at $16.6b in 2029–30 (ranging between $16.6–17.1b). Prices are projected to be lower in this scenario while production is expected to be higher initially.

The nominal value of beef, veal and live cattle production in 2024–25 is expected to be $1.4billion higher than forecast in the December 2024 Agricultural Commodities Report. This is driven by an upwards revision to cattle saleyard prices and beef production volumes to reflect recent data.

Value of beef exports to increase in 2025–26, but then fall

Nominal beef, veal and live cattle export values are forecast to rise to $15.9b in 2024–25, up by 20pc from $13.2b in 2023–24.

Higher export values are driven by both higher export volumes and prices for beef, veal and live cattle. Nominal export values are forecast to fall slightly in 2025–26 to $15.8b as lower production volumes result in lower export volumes, more than offsetting expected higher export prices.

In contrast to the forecast increases in the near term, real export values for beef, veal and live cattle are projected to fall over the medium term (ranging between $13.1–14.6b), ending at $13.6b in 2029–30.

Real export values are forecast to fall over the first few years of the outlook period due to expected lower Australian export prices (in real terms) and lower export volumes. Real export values are expected to stabilise towards the end of the outlook as export volumes rise, reflecting higher Australian beef production.  In the alternative scenario, the real value of beef, veal and live cattle exports is also projected to fall over the outlook period, ending at $11.5b in 2029–30 (ranging between $11.5–14.8b).

Export values are similar to the baseline scenario in the first half of the medium term as expected lower prices are offset by higher export volumes; values end lower in 2029–30 reflecting a further fall in prices.  The forecast value of beef, veal and live cattle exports for 2024–25 is expected to be 6pc ($920 million) higher than forecast in the December 2024 Agricultural Commodities Report.

This is driven by an upwards revision to export prices and volumes reflecting recent export data.

ABARES’ Agricultural Commodities Report March 2025 can be read here.